New Minnesota Timberwolves GM Tim Connelly pulled a whopper of a trade.
Here it is:
Timberwolves receive:
• Rudy Gobert
Jazz receive:
• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick
An old adage is whoever gets the best player wins the trade.
How do I analyze this trade? In a few ways.
Trading away your future for now usually wins you fanfare. Big names get more attention that words like “2025 first round pick”.
Initially my thoughts were that the Timberwolves got absolutely fleeced again.
Most winners build teams in the draft and the Wolves are giving away 5 first round picks (including this years) and a swap. I also believe teams trading away first rounders or even second rounders are betting against themselves in being able to assess talent and draft and build a team. They go for the big name recognition now. It looks great to fans since it’s a name but the future of the team is traded away. Those future picks are often worth less to a team that has a history of poor drafting. The Wolves have done well recently with their first overall picks (Wiggins, KAT, Ant) but also missed on Steph Curry twice. Aside from teams that can draw big talent through free agency or trade (Lakers and to a lesser extent Boston, Brooklyn, Clippers… and I’m not sure who else in recent memory) most teams need to build through the draft.
The problem with big name players is they have their big names because of what they have done. There’s no guarantee they aren’t past their prime (Boston Celtics trading their core to the Brooklyn Nets), will get injured (Kawhi Leonard) or will mess well with the new team. Often people think the math is you take players on their previous teams stats and add them together. That’s not how it works. There’s only one ball to go around and 48 minutes in a game.
What gave me pause with the trade is who made it for the Timberwolves as previously mentioned. Tim Connelly has an excellent history of drafting and building a team with the Denver Nuggets. He has a respectable track record of drafting and signing players. The Nuggets have a strong core of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter and should be contenders next season.
But on the other side of the trade is the architect of the current Boston Celtics roster who absolutely fleeced the Brooklyn nets and went on to draft Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for the Boston – Danny Ainge.
Other thoughts on this trade are they are a bit of an indictment on Karl Anthony Towns. It shows his ineffectiveness as a true center. People have fallen in love with KAT because his stats. But as a center his defense is lacking. He’s not a great rim protector and doesn’t have great foot speed and will lose most battles on defence. On offence he would be great at pulling great rim protectors out of the lane but now one of the great rim protectors is on his team.
In the end I still believe the Utah Jazz fleeced the Timberwolves. The Wolves are a better team now on paper. They likely will be a better team on the floor as well. Gobert has a big influence on the game and Anthony Edwards is an exceptional talent. KAT and D’Angelo are good pieces but not elite. They traded away some impact players like Beasley and Beverly but most of them are likely great bench players on a championship team. It’s a good time to make a big push for the Wolves and this might be one of their best options. But I see them losing in the first round of the playoffs for the foreseeable future.
When the dust settles on the trade most people will forget that it happened or what players Utah ends up with since it will be a while before the picks are even made. Gobert will have an immediate impact. His largest impact might be in the locker room. Connelly knows more than I’ll likely ever know. It could be a win for both teams which Connelly has even said is the desired outcome in any trade. But in the long run I believe the Jazz will get the bigger return (although the offsetting years and time till the picks are made soften the blow).
Utah and Danny Ainge will then have 4 first rounders of the Wolves and a swap with a good chance at some point of being a high pick. In the short term it’s likely a win-win but as long as Ainge and Connelly are the GMs there will be an ongoing interplay to see who the real winner is. The better the Wolves play the later the picks will be. We will get a chance to see the scouting and managing from Ainge with his time in Utah. Or it could all become seemingly a wash for them if they move on from their teams or trade the assets around.
Final thought is the darkhorse in this trade. Walker Kessler.
He hasn’t seen time in NBA summerleague but he could easily eclipse Golbert’s value. He might not but the tools are there.
He’s a 7 foot shot blocking center with in my opinion a better looking shot and handle than Gobert already….
